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Market specialists have expressed deep doubt regarding bullish predictions that US energy majors will rapidly commit tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the country's crumbling production facilities.

Requirement of Solid Assurances

Without an solid promise of full reimbursement from the Washington, experts believe international firms to move with significant hesitation.

“It would be premature to discuss any upcoming plans,” a representative said recently.

The optimistic timeline of less than a year and a half has been boldly proposed. Yet, expert analyses suggest a different picture.

A Probable Timeline

“It’s probably going to take multiple years for any significant recovery in production,” noted one chief investment officer.

He suggested oil companies would likely spend:

• Year one: Sorting through new regulatory frameworks.
• Following phase: Investing in overhaul of equipment.
• Year three: Starting to boost production.

The result could be an increase of around half a million barrels per day maybe by 2029.

Appetite Compared to Appetite for Risk

Experts make a critical difference between firms' attention and their willingness to spend substantially.

“I think their interest is an high score, on a scale of one to 10. However, their willingness is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.”

Experienced observers in the region echo this sentiment. They believe that majors will publicly talk up the opportunity while in practice moving with extreme caution.

The Enormous Price Tag

The financial outlay would be colossal. Independent analysis suggest that increasing production by between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require more than $10 billion in investment over several years.

But, restoring output to previous levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Question of Taxpayer Funding

The idea of firms being paid back by the government has been often floated. But, formal assurances on this proposal have not yet been provided.

Without certainty is the key reason behind the industry's reluctance. Operators seek guarantees against sovereign risk and the chance that a future president could cancel any deal.

“They must be insured against nationalization, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela before.”

Therefore, while political optimism runs strong, the financial realities suggest a path of slow deliberation for potential major venture in the country's oil sector.